READY MERCURY: IS THIS THE PERFECT RECIPE FOR MUSIC AWARD SUCCESS?

For the last 30 years the Mercury Prize has been famous for promoting British music industry talent, boosting the album sales of lesser-known artists – and its unpredictability.

However research exploring the award’s history has uncovered winning trends that should strike a chord with forecasters hoping to pick who will triumph this Thursday (September 8).

A new study by music and recording agency The Online Recording Studio has analysed every previous winner of the prestigious prize – from inaugural victors Primal Scream in 1992 to last year’s choice Arlo Parks – and spotted some key ingredients that point to Mercury glory.

The acts were assessed under four criteria – the number of musicians at the time of their entry, how many studio albums they had released, the number of tracks on their winning entry, and whether they had a male or female vocalist – or shared vocals.

Digging into the data showed that Mercury winners have an average of three members with successful trios like Klaxons, Alt-J and Young Fathers following this trend1. While the £25,000 prize has been awarded to solo artists for the past three years, bands have enjoyed more success overall, taking the crown 53.3% of the time2 – good news for current hopefuls Yard Act.

When it comes to the albums themselves, winning acts on average achieve success with their second studio release, with James Blake, Antony and the Johnsons and surprise 1994 winner M People fitting the bill3. This year, Nova Twins, Self Esteem and Sam Fender are the only entrants with a follow-up record in the frame.

Keeping track of the number of songs listed on Mercury albums, the study reveals that an average of 12 – as chosen by recent winners Skepta (2016), Wolf Alice (2018) and Arlo Parks (2021) – is a good target for award hopefuls4. In 2022 two duos, Jessie Buckley & Bernard Butler and Wet Leg, have a dozen tracks in their entries.

While drum and bass group Roni Size/Reprazent broke the mould by winning with 22 tracks in 1997, the study shows that 93% of the records of the year featured between 10 and 15 songs. No album has so far won with less than 10 tracks, meaning shortlisted jazz pianist Fergus McCreadie’s eight-song album Forest Floor can safely be considered an outside bet.

Male-fronted acts have enjoyed the lion’s share of Mercury success with two-thirds of wins, including eight in the last ten years. Female vocalists have won on average just one in four prizes, while groups sharing the singing duties are a rarity, with two victories overall. These trends suggest that Harry Styles, whose Harry’s House is 2022’s fastest-selling album, could also pick up the coveted record prize.

However as more than half of this year’s nominees have a female singer – including rapper Little Simz, the current bookmaker favourite, and soul performer Joy Crookes – this may be a year when the past is not a great form guide.

Joe Wadsworth, founder of The Online Recording Studio comments: “Picking the Mercury Prize best album is tough any time, but 2022’s eclectic shortlist spanning pop, jazz, rock, folk, soul and rap makes it an especially tall order for the judges.

“Through our research of the awards’ 30-year history we’ve seen some fascinating trends emerge, with bands blitzing the early Britpop-infused years, while the last decade has seen solo artists take centre stage. Following the numbers, a trio with a frontman, entering their dozen-track sophomore album should be perfectly tuned for Mercury glory – at least on paper.

“The diversity of this year’s nominees is a great strength – yet it hasn’t always been that way, with some line-ups in the 90s and noughties painting a decidedly pale and male picture of the record industry.

“However, another female-dominated shortlist this year, replicating 2020, shows the progress made on gender representation. Just like the music it champions, the Mercury Prize has evolved.”