Anatomy of an Oscar-winning song: Music experts predict the next winner

The competition for this year’s Best Original Song at the 96th Academy Awards, to be hosted on 10 March, has been hotly contested.

Songs from some of the biggest movies of the year have been nominated including I’m Just Ken and What Was I Made For from Barbie, along with Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) from Killers of the Flower Moon. Other nominees include It Never Went Away from American Symphony and Flamin’ Hot from The Fire Inside.

Music experts at Startle, have analysed the characteristics of the last 50 Oscar-winning songs to determine what it takes to walk away with the coveted gold statue.

The analysts reviewed characteristics related to the movies these songs are featured in, including genre and worldwide box office earnings, as well as specific characteristics of each song, including tempo, key, energy and positiveness.

So, what qualities make for an Oscar-winning song?

In recent years, the Academy has faced criticism for the gender disparity of both nominees and winners over the years, particularly in categories like Best Director. In fact, only eight women have ever been nominated for the coveted award.

However, researchers found that there is less of a divide in the Best Original Song category. Forty-six percent of the past 50 winners are sung by women, while 40 percent are men. Mixed groups and non-binary people make up the remaining 14 percent of winners.

The research also reveals that massive blockbuster hits don’t increase the nominees’ chances of winning. Songs from movies that have grossed a respectable $100 to $500 million have won the most Oscars (40 percent) for Best Original Song.

Comparatively, songs from less lucrative movies (grossing between $20- and $100 million) have also fared well. Fifteen songs (30 percent) that fit into this category have won a Best Original Song award.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, movies with over $500 million earned at the box office, have accounted for fewer wins, largely due to the smaller pool of high-grossing titles. Movies making astonishing amounts of money is a relatively new phenomenon, with only 53 titles ever hitting $1 billion at the box office.

Genre has also proven to be a contributing factor for Best Song wins. 27 songs from drama films have clinched the Oscar over the past 50 years – making up the majority of winners. Songs from musicals and romance films have also fared well, winning 18 and 14 Oscars respectively for Best Original Song. Songs from film genres including biopics, documentaries and teen films, have won just one Oscar each in the past 50 years.

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It also turns out that specific song characteristics, including key, tempo, energy and positiveness can also factor in what makes a song more likely to win.

Eighty percent of Oscar-winning songs in the past five decades have been a major key. Songs in C Major, D Major and A-flat Major make up the majority of this.

Songs with a tempo that isn’t too fast or slow have proven to be big winners in the past. In fact, 30 percent of winning songs have a tempo between 91bpm and 110bpm while 24 percent have a tempo between 111bpm and 130bpm. Songs that are either faster or slower make up the minority of winners.

Interestingly, the data reveals that more sombre songs are the most likely to win an Oscar. Thirty-six percent of winners have had a positivity score of between 1 and 20 percent. Extremely positive songs, with a score between 81 and 100 percent, have won just six Oscars in the past 50 years.

The energy of the Oscar-winning songs also indicates that the Academy tends to favour more low-energy songs. Twenty-eight percent of songs have an energy score between 21 and 40 percent. Twenty-six percent of winners have the lowest energy scores, between 1 and 20 percent.