Trump’s tariff turbulence could be good news for UK exporters, says Parcelhero

President Trump’s rollercoaster tariff ride has resulted in new duties on all products arriving in the US from China and left Mexican and Canadian exporters in confusion. UK sellers could find new ways to fill the gaps, says the home delivery expert Parcelhero.

US President Donald Trump’s first dramatic weeks in power could create new sales opportunities for UK SME exporters, believes the UK-based international delivery expert Parcelhero.

It says that sellers from China, Mexico and Canada have been thrown into turmoil by Trump’s rollercoaster tariff ride, and this opens the door for UK sellers. Currently, there also seems a reasonable chance that the UK may dodge any new Trump tax, which could improve the competitiveness of British products in the US.

Parcelhero’s Head of Consumer Research, David Jinks, a Member of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, says: ‘Chinese e-commerce imports are suddenly more expensive for American consumers after Trump nixed the $800 de minimis threshold on packages entering the US from China.

‘Now there’s a minimum 10% tariff to pay on all Chinese products, meaning an item priced at $1 will now cost its US buyer a further 10 cents. As the value of a package rises, so do the fees; as a result, an item purchased online from China for $800 now costs American consumers $80 more.

‘Previously, Chinese marketplace traders used the de minimis limit to ship millions of low-value packages to the US. Close to half of all parcels entering America under de minimis exemptions were sent from China.

‘UK-sourced products costing less than $800 will now be a little more competitive for US buyers against Chinese imports than they were. Chinese traders will also have been impacted by the decision by the US Postal Service (USPS) earlier this week to temporarily cease delivering packages from China altogether while it adapted to the new tariff regime – though deliveries have now resumed.

‘Meanwhile, Mexican and Canadian sellers have been thrown into turmoil by President Trump’s on-and-off tariff plans. New 25% tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada entering the US were shelved at the eleventh hour, but that may be only a stay of execution. They are set to be introduced in a month’s time.

‘Whatever the final outcome, these threats have certainly poisoned the well as far as many SME sellers from Mexico and Canada are concerned. They will be looking to concentrate more of their sales efforts on alternative markets, which could again give UK traders an edge.

‘There is one good reason to think UK sellers might escape new Trump tariffs entirely. Unlike its position with Canada and Mexico, America’s balance of payments with the UK are far nearer parity. That will be part of the thinking behind Trump’s recent comment that any threat of new charges on UK imports “can be worked out”.

‘Post Brexit, the USA is Britain’s biggest trading partner. In 2023, the UK imported £57.9bn of US goods and exported £60.4bn of goods there. That’s pretty nearly honours even. Compare that to the situation with Mexico and Canada, and it’s not hard to see why Trump believes there is an “unfair” trading imbalance with its nearest neighbours.

‘US goods exports to Mexico in 2022 were worth $324.3bn (£259bn) but its imports totalled $454.8bn (364bn). That left America with a $130.5bn (£104bn) trade deficit. Similarly, US goods exports to Canada in 2022 were worth $356.5bn (285bn) but its imports were $436.6bn (£349bn). That means the US goods trade deficit with Canada was $80.1bn (£64bn).

‘It’s not only Mexico and Canada’s trade imbalance that Trump feels aggrieved about. US goods exports to the European Union (EU) in 2022 were $350.8bn (£280bn) but its goods imports from the EU totalled $553.3bn (£442bn). As a result, the US goods trade deficit with the EU was $202.5 bn (£162bn).

‘That means the EU is also in Trump’s cross-hairs when it comes to new tariffs. In fact, there is currently significant press speculation that a 10% new tariff on EU products could be imminent. Again, with the UK now a separate trading entity from the EU, any new duties on European products could give UK sellers a price advantage.

‘Of course, there is no guarantee that Trump won’t impose tariffs on the UK as well as the EU. He uses them as a tool to achieve a variety of political goals, as well as simply to resolve trade issues. However, for now, there do seem to be unexpected opportunities opening up for UK sellers who are flexible enough to take advantage of changing trading conditions with the US.