Revealed: The Winning Cheltenham Festival Formula

How do you pick a Cheltenham winner? Study the form, check the odds, cross your fingers, and hope for the best? BoyleSports believes there could be another way.

In-depth research of every jockey who has placed first in a race at the Cheltenham Festival between 2000 and 2020 reveals the performance statistics that each champion has in common. The analysis focused on the number of wins and places for each jockey, total prize money for each win, and the average starting price, as well as personal characteristics of the top winners to reveal the overall magic formula.

To read the research findings in detail, please visit: https://betting.boylesports.com/horse-racing/cheltenham/backing-a-winner

When it comes to betting on the Grade 1 races at the festival – including the Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, Queen Mother Champion Chase and the Stayers’ Hurdle – be sure to keep on jockeys aged 26 who have yet to place first in a Cheltenham race, but who have 43 previous races at the festival under their belts. They could well be on their way to glory and are the ones to watch.

Calculating the average statistic for each performance metric analysed shows that the average number of previous Cheltenham wins is four, with three apiece for second and third-place finishes.

The Average Cheltenham Festival Jockey

Jockey Category (avg.)

Jockey Performance Stat (avg.)

Cheltenham Win Age

26

Grade 1 Race Win Age

22

Total Races

43

1st Place Wins

4

2nd Place Wins

3

3rd Place Wins

3

Strike Rate (Win Rate)

16%

Place Rate

28%

1st Place Prize Money Earned

£306,383.06

Average Starting Price (odds)

30/1

Profit from £1 Stake

£44.29

Alongside the performance data, BoyleSports also looked at the personal traits of the top 50 most successful jockeys, everything from eye colour to heritage and their family unit.

With just 15% of licensed professional jockeys being female, it’s no surprise that the average Cheltenham winner is male. Jockeys who hail from Cork and have settled down into marriage with two children tend to fare better on the podium at Cheltenham.

And if you think a win could be written in the stars, the most successful jockeys down the years have been either Aries or Cancer and born on the 17th day of the month.

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